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State-Level High School Completion Rates: Concepts, Measures, and Trends John Robert Warren University of Minnesota Citation: Warren, J. R. (2005). State-level high school completion rates: Concepts, measures, and trends. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 13(51). Retrieved [date] from http://epaa.asu.edu/epaa/v13n51/. Abstract Since the mid 1970s the national rate at which incoming 9th graders have completed high school has fallen slowly but steadily; this is also true in 41 states. In 2002, about three in every four students who might have completed high school actually did so; in some states this figure is substantially lower. In this paper I review state-level measures of high school completion rates and describe and validate a new measure that reports these rates for 1975 through 2002. Existing measures based on the Current Population Survey are conceptually imperfect and statistically unreliable. Measures based on Common Core Data (CCD) dropout information are unavailable for many states and have different conceptual weaknesses. Existing measures based on CCD enrollment and completion data are systematically biased by migration, changes in cohort size, and/or grade retention. The new CCD-based measure described here is considerably less biased, performs differently in empirical analyses, and gives a different picture of the dropout situation across states and over time. Access this article in PDF format.

The World Wide Web address for the Education Policy Analysis Archives is epaa.asu.edu Editor: Sherman Dorn, University of South Florida Production Assistant: Chris Murrell, Arizona State University General questions about appropriateness of topics or particular articles may be addressed to the Editor, Sherman Dorn, epaa-editor@shermandorn.com. The Commentary Editor is Casey D. Cobb: casey.cobb@uconn.edu. EPAA Editorial Board Michael W. Apple University of Wisconsin David C. Berliner Arizona State University Greg Camilli Rutgers University Casey Cobb University of Connecticut Linda Darling-Hammond Stanford University Mark E. Fetler California Commission on Teacher Credentialing Gustavo E. Fischman Arizona State Univeristy Richard Garlikov Birmingham, Alabama Gene V Glass Arizona State University Thomas F. Green Syracuse University Aimee Howley Ohio University Craig B. 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España       Email: enguita@usal.es Miguel Pereira Catedratico Universidad de Granada, España       Email: mpereyra@aulae.es Jurjo Torres Santomé Universidad de A Coruña       Email: jurjo@udc.es Angel Ignacio Pérez Gómez Universidad de Málaga       Email: aiperez@uma.es México Hugo Aboites Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Xochimilco, México       Email: aavh4435@cueyatl.uam.mx Susan Street Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores en Antropologia Social Occidente, Guadalajara, México       Email: slsn@mail.udg.mx Adrián Acosta Universidad de Guadalajara       Email: adrianacosta@compuserve.com Teresa Bracho Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica-CIDE       Email: bracho dis1.cide.mx Alejandro Canales Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México       Email: canalesa@servidor.unam.mx Rollin Kent Universidad Autónoma de Puebla. Puebla, México       Email: rkent@puebla.megared.net.mx Perú Sigfredo Chiroque Instituto de Pedagogía Popular, Perú       Email: pedagogia@chavin.rcp.net.pe Grover Pango Coordinador General del Foro Latinoamericano de Políticas Educativas, Perú       Email: grover-eduforo@terra.com.pe Portugal Antonio Teodoro Director da Licenciatura de Ciências da Educação e do Mestrado Universidade Lusófona de Humanidades e Tecnologias, Lisboa, Portugal       Email: a.teodoro@netvisao.pt USA Pia Lindquist Wong California State University, Sacramento, California       Email: wongp@csus.edu Nelly P. Stromquist University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California       Email: nellystromquist@juno.com Diana Rhoten Social Science Research Council, New York, New York       Email: rhoten@ssrc.org Daniel C. Levy University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York       Email: Dlevy@uamail.albany.edu Ursula Casanova Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona       Email: casanova@asu.edu Erwin Epstein Loyola University, Chicago, Illinois       Email: eepstei@wpo.it.luc.edu Carlos A. Torres University of California, Los Angeles       Email: torres@gseisucla.edu