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Affirmative Action's Fate: Are 20 More Years Enough? Michele S. Moses University of Colorado at Boulder John T. Yun Patricia Marin University of California, Santa Barbara Citation: Moses, M. S., Yun, J. T., & Marin, P. (2009). Affirmative action's fate: Are 20 more years enough? Education Policy Analysis Archives, 17(17). Retrieved [date] from http://epaa.asu.edu/epaa/v17n17/. Abstract In this article we examine the current status of affirmative action in postsecondary admissions through a concurrent review of recent court rulings, state legislation, and higher education enrollment data. Analyzing each of these factors in the context of the others is important because the court decisions and state-level legislation interact to affect enrollment. We not only present the state of the law, but also examine several outcomes of affirmative action case law and ballot initiatives as well as political implications for the future of affirmative action. From a broad philosophical and legal perspective, then, we ask first, what is the current legal and political status of race-conscious policy in higher education admissions? And second, given that current status, what is the likelihood that by 2028 affirmative action will no longer be needed to further the goals of diversity and equality on college and university campuses? Our methods include analyses of prominent court decisions and state legislation, as well as analyses of enrollment data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System to examine the racial/ethnic diversity of first-time, degree-seeking undergraduates at several state flagship institutions from 1994 to 2005 and compare that to the racial/ethnic diversity of the same undergraduate students attending all 2- and 4-year degree granting public and private institutions in the flagship's state. In states potentially facing anti-affirmative action ballot initiatives, these analyses provide one approach to examining the current need for affirmative action in admissions and the likely consequences if the ballot initiatives pass. Keywords: higher education; affirmative action; legal analysis; demography; overrepresentation; underrepresentation El destino de acción afirmativa: ¿Son suficientes 20 años más? Resumen En este artículo examinamos la situación actual de los programas de acción afirmativa para admisiones universitarias a través de una revisión conjunta de sentencias judiciales recientes, legislación estatal, y los datos de matrícula en educación superior. Es importante analizar cada uno de estos factores en el contexto de los demás porque las decisiones judiciales y la legislación a nivel estatal interactúan influyendo la matriculación. Presentamos no sólo el estado actual de las leyes, sino que también examinamos los resultados de varias decisiones legales sobre casos de acción afirmativa y de iniciativas electorales, así como las implicaciones políticas para el futuro de los programas de acción afirmativa. Desde una perspectiva filosófica y jurídica amplia, nos preguntamos en primer lugar, ¿cuál es la situación jurídica y política actual de las políticas conscientes racialmente (race-conscious) en la admisión de la educación superior? Y en segundo lugar, tomando en cuenta la situación actual, ¿cuál es la probabilidad de que en 2028 no sean necesarios programas de acción afirmativa para alcanzar los objetivos de diversidad e igualdad en facultades y universidades? Nuestros métodos incluyen el análisis de decisiones judiciales importantes, legislación estatal, así como el análisis de los datos del Sistema Integrado de Educación Postsecundaria sobre diversidad de estudiantes de grupos raciales/étnicos que se matriculan por primera vez en las universidades de mayor prestigio (flagship institutions) para obtener sus títulos durante el período de 1994 a 2005 y comparamos esos datos con con las matriculaciones en todas las instituciones públicas y privadas de educación superior de 2 y 4 años en el mismo estado. En los estados que posiblemente se promuevan iniciativas electorales contrarias a los programas de acción afirmativa, estos análisis proporcionan una aproximación al estudio de la necesidad actual de programas de acción afirmativa en admisiones universitarias y las posibles consecuencias si esas iniciativas electorales son aprobadas. Palabras clave: educación superior, la acción afirmativa; análisis jurídico; demografía; excesiva; insuficiente. Access this article in PDF format. Education Policy Analysis Archives, class size, David Berliner, Gene Glass, Michael Apple, Sherman Dorn, Gustavo Fischman, Pablo Gentili, education policy analysis archives, epaa, aape, education, Paulo Freire, reforma educativa, archivos analiticos politicas educativas, neoliberalismo, descentralizacion, evaluacion, pruebas nacionales, estandares, lectura, revista educativa, revista academica, pruebas, sindicatos docentes, gremios, profesores, universidades, escuelas publicas, escuelas privadas, escuelas charter, policy, educational policy, policy analysis, vouchers, charter schools, evaluation, educational evaluation, education reform, school reform, educational reform, educational journals, accountability, school choice, standards, higher education, academic standards, testing, assessment, public policy, teaching, journal, educational research, private schools, homeschooling, home schooling, tuition, teacher unions, educational assessment,política, política educacional, análise de política, comprovantes, escolas da carta patente, avaliação, avaliação educacional, reforma dainstrução, reforma de escola, reforma educacional, jornais educacionais, accountability, escolha da escola, educacion popular; pedagogia critica, Education Policy Analysis Archives, class size, David Berliner, Gene Glass, Michael Apple, Sherman Dorn, Gustavo Fischman, Pablo Gentili, education policy analysis archives, epaa, aape, education, Paulo Freire, reforma educativa, archivos analiticos politicas educativas, neoliberalismo, descentralizacion, evaluacion, pruebas nacionales, estandares, lectura, revista educativa, revista academica, pruebas, sindicatos docentes, gremios, profesores, universidades, escuelas publicas, escuelas privadas, escuelas charter, policy, educational policy, policy analysis, vouchers, charter schools, evaluation, educational evaluation, education reform, school reform, educational reform, educational journals, accountability, school choice, standards, higher education, academic standards, testing, assessment, public policy, teaching, journal, educational research, private schools, homeschooling, home schooling, tuition, teacher unions, educational assessment,política, política educacional, análise de política, comprovantes, escolas da carta patente, avaliação, avaliação educacional, reforma da instrução, reforma de escola, reforma educacional, jornais educacionais, accountability, escolha da escola   Readers are free to copy, display, and distribute this abstract and the associated article, as long as the work is attributed to the author(s) and Education Policy Analysis Archives, it is distributed for non-commercial purposes only, and no alteration or transformation is made in the work. All other uses must be approved by the author(s) or EPAA. EPAA is published jointly by the Mary Lou Fulton Institute and Graduate School of Education at Arizona State University and the College of Education at the University of South Florida. Articles are indexed by Directory of Open Access Journals, ERIC, H.W. Wilson & Co, and SCOPUS. Please contribute commentary at http://epaa.info/wordpress/ and send errata notes to Sherman Dorn (epaa-editor@shermandorn.com).