Education Policy Analysis Archives

Volume 8 Number 41

The Texas Miracle in Education

Walt Haney

5. Missing Students and Other Mirages

          As previously mentioned, dropout rate is one of the indicators used in the TEA accountability system for rating Texas districts and campuses. Also, as summarized in Section 3.3 above, the TEA has reported that dropout rates have been decreasing in Texas during the 1990s. However, in 1998 when I began studying what had been happening in Texas schools, I quickly became suspicious of the validity of the TEA-reported dropout data. At least one independent organization in Texas had previously challenged TEA's "dropout calculation methodology" (TRA, 1998, p. 2). Moreover, two independent sources were reporting substantially higher rates of dropouts (or attrition) or, conversely, lower rates of high school completion than would be implied by TEA dropout data (Fassold, 1996; IDRA, 1996).
          Hence, to examine independent evidence on recent patterns of high school completion in Texas and possible effects of the TAAS on grade enrollment patterns and high school completion, I assembled data on the numbers of White, Hispanic and Black students enrolled in every grade (kindergarten to grade 12) in Texas over the last two decades. (Note 12)
          Before describing analyses of these data, three additional points should be made. First, in assembling this data set, we have taken care to double-check the accuracy of all data input (in this context, "we" refers to myself and Damtew Teferra, a Boston College doctoral student who helped me assemble the Texas enrollment data set). Second, to my original set of data on grade enrollment by ethnic group for each year between 1975-76 and 1998-99, I added data on the numbers of high school graduates each year (provided to me, again, thanks to the kind assistance of Dr. Rincon and Terry Hitchcock). Third, I should mention that data on enrollments and graduates for 1998-99 were not available until recently and hence were not considered in my previous reports or in the TAAS trial in the Fall of 1999. Finally, in case others might wish to verify results shown below, or conduct other analyses of Texas enrollments over the last quarter century, I make available via this publication, the set of data I have assembled (see, Appendix 7).

5.1 Progress from Grade 9 to High School Graduation

          In this analysis, I simply took the numbers of White, Black and Hispanic Texas high school graduates by year and divided each of these numbers respectively by the number of White, Black and Hispanic students enrolled in grade nine three years earlier. The resulting ratios show the proportion of grade nine students for each ethnic group who progress on time to high school graduation three-and-a-half years later. The results of this analysis are shown in Figure 5.1.


          Figure 5.1 shows that between 1978 and 1985-86, the ratio of HS graduates to grade nine students three years earlier ranged between 0.72 and 0.78 for White students and between 0.57 and 0.64 for Black and Hispanic students. Between 1985-86 and 1989-90 these ratios declined slightly for all ethnic groups, from 0.72 to 0.70 for Whites, from 0.59 to 0.57 for Blacks and from 0.57 to 0.56 for Hispanics. However, in 1990-91, the first year the TAAS high school graduation test was used, the ratios for all three groups evidence the most precipitous drops in the whole 20-year time series: for Whites from 0.699 to 0.640 (a drop of 0.059), for Blacks from 0.567 to 0.474 (a drop of 0.093) and for Hispanics from 0.564 to 0.476 (a drop of 0.088). In other words, the steep drop in this indicator of progress from grade 9 to high school graduation was about 50% greater for Black and Hispanic students than for White students.
          In 1991, the ratios for all three ethnic groups showed a slight rebound, from 0.640 to 0.700 for Whites, from 0.474 to 0.518 for Blacks and 0.476 to 0.513 for Hispanics. In 1992-93, the first year in which the TAAS graduation requirement was fully implemented, Whites showed a minor decline, from 0.700 to 0.689, but for Blacks and Hispanics declines were larger: from 0.518 to 0.479 for Blacks and from 0.513 to 0.491 for Hispanics.
          From full implementation of the TAAS as a requirement for high school graduation in Texas in 1992-93 (with the passing score set at 70%) until 1998-99, the ratio of HS graduates to grade nine students three years earlier has been just at or below 0.500 for Black and Hispanic students, while it has been just about 0.700 for White students.
          Figure 5.2 presents another view of these data. This figure shows the ratio of the number of Texas high school graduates divided by the number of grade nine students three years earlier for White and Nonwhite students. What this figure shows even more clearly than the previous figure is that since the three-year period 1990-92 in which the TAAS exit test requirement was phased in, the gap in this ratio for White and Nonwhite students has widened substantially. Specifically, during the period 1978 through 1989, the average gap in the ratios graphed in Figure 5.2 was 0.146. However, the average gap in the ratios for Whites and Nonwhites since the TAAS exit test requirement was fully implemented in 1992-93 has been 0.215. This indicates that the TAAS exit test has been associated with a 50% increase in the gap in progression from grade 9 to high school graduation for Nonwhite students as compared with White students.

5.2 Grade-to-Grade Progression Ratios

          What happened between the late 1970s and the mid-1990's? (Note 13) Where did the decline in progression between grade nine and high school graduation occur for Black and Hispanic students? Was it at grade 10 when they first took the TAAS exit test, or in grade 12 after they had had a chance to take the TAAS-X as many as eight times?
          To shed light on this question, I calculated the grade-to-grade progression ratios of the number of students enrolled in one grade divided by the number of students enrolled in the previous grade in the previous year, separately for the Black, Hispanic and White ethnic groups. Altogether, 858 such calculations were computed—13 grade transitions (from kindergarten to grade 1, etc., to grade 12 to high school graduation) for 22 years and three ethnic groups. Overall there was considerable consistency in these grade transition ratios. Across the last twenty years, and the 13 grade transitions, for the three ethnic groups, overall, transitions from one grade to another have been highly consistent, with 99 or 100% of each ethnic group, on average, progressing from one grade in one year to the next grade in the following year.
          What the detailed results show, however, is that there are two sets of grade progression ratios that were highly unusual (greater than 1.24 or more than 2 standard deviations from the mean across all transition ratios; see Haney 1999, Table 5). First, in the decade 1976 to 1986, there were 25 grade progression ratios that exceeded 1.24. These were all for the grade 1/kindergarten ratios, and mostly for Black and Hispanic students, though there were a few years for which the comparable ratios for White students exceeded 1.24. It is likely that these high ratios resulted partly from a time when kindergarten attendance in Texas was not universal and many students entered school in grade 1 without previously having attended kindergarten.
          Since 1990, there were more than a dozen grade progression ratios that exceeded 1.24. For each and every year from 1992-93 to 1998-99, the grade 9/grade 8 progression ratio for Black and Hispanic students has exceeded 1.24, while the comparable ratio for White students has remained in the range of 1.08 to 1.11. As shown in Figure 5.3, since 1990 the grade 9/grade 8 progression ratio for Black and Hispanic students has risen dramatically, while the comparable rate for White students increased only slightly.


          The data also reveal that before the mid-1980s, the grade9/grade8 progression ratios for Black and Hispanic students were only slightly higher than those for Whites. These results clearly indicate that since 1992 progress from grade 9 to high school graduation has been stymied for Black and Hispanic students not after grade 10 when they first take the TAAS exit test, but in grade nine before they take the test. These results clearly support the hypothesis advanced in my December 1998 report, namely that after 1990 schools in Texas have increasingly been retaining students, disproportionately Black and Hispanic students, in grade nine in order to make their grade 10 TAAS scores look better (Haney, 1998, pp. 17-18).
          This hypothesis was discussed during the TAAS trial. In his ruling, Judge Prado held that "Expert Walter Haney's" hypothesis that schools are retaining students in ninth grade in order to inflate tenth-grade TAAS results was not supported with legally sufficient evidence demonstrating the link between retention and TAAS (Prado, 2000, p. 27). In Section 5.6 below, I present documentation that was not allowed into the TAAS trial as evidence to support the hypothesis. For now, however, suffice it to note that the pattern apparent in Figure 5.3 provides a clear explanation for one aspect of the Texas "miracle," namely, the apparent decrease in the racial gap in test scores (reviewed in Section 3.3 above). One clear cause for the decrease in the racial gap in grade 10 TAAS scores in the 1990s (see Table 3.2 and Figure 3.2) is that Black and Hispanic students are being increasingly retained in grade 9 before they take the grade 10 TAAS tests. Between 1989-90 (the year before TAAS was implemented) and the late 1990s, the grade9/grade8 progression ratios for Black and Hispanic students grew from about 1.20 to 1.30, while the comparable ratio for White students remained at about 1.1.
          It is apparent from Figure 5.3 that the higher rates of grade 9 retention of Black and Hispanic students, as compared White students, did not begin with TAAS. The results shown in Figure 5.3 indicate that the grade9/grade8 progression ratios for minorities began to diverge from those of White students in Texas in the 1980s, before TAAS and even before TEAMS. In an historical sense, then, TAAS and TEAMS could not have directly caused the steady increase since the early 1980s in the proportions of Black and Hispanics retained in grade 9. But the first statewide testing program in Texas, the TABS, did begin in 1980, just about the time the ratio of minority ninth graders to eighth graders began its upward climb, compared with the relative stability of this ratio for White students. Whatever the historical cause, the fact that by the end of the 1990s 25-30% of Black and Hispanic students, as compared with only 10% of White students, were being retained to repeat grade 9, instead of being promoted to grade 10, makes it clear that the apparent diminution in the grade 10 racial gap in TAAS pass rates is in some measure an illusion.
          Data for the last two academic years, i.e., 1997-98 and 1998-99, provide a picture of how grade progression ratios compare across the grade levels. Specifically, Figure 5.4 shows the grade progression ratios for grades 1 through 12 and for graduates. For grades 1 through 12 these are simply the number of students enrolled in a particular grade in 1998-99 divided by the number enrolled in the previous grade in 1997-98. The only exception to this pattern is for graduates in which the ratio shown is the number of graduates in 1999 divided by the number enrolled in grade 12 in the fall of 1998-99.

As can be seen, for most grade levels the progression ratios are highly similar for Black, Hispanic and White students. Indeed for grades 2 through 8 all of the transition ratios are close to 1.00. Note however how sharply the transition ratios diverge for grades 9 and 10. In 1998-99, there were about 30% more Black and Hispanic students enrolled in grade 9 than had been enrolled in grade 8 in 1997-98 (as compared with about 10% more Whites). Also, in 1998-99 there were 25-30% fewer Black and Hispanic students enrolled in grade 10 than had been enrolled in grade 9 in 1997-98. These data indicate that at the end of the 1990s even for students who had been going to school for virtually their entire careers under TAAS testing (a student in grade 9 in 1998-99, would have been in grade 1 in 1990-91, if not retained in grade), there remains a huge gap in progress in the early high school years for Black and Hispanic students as compared with Whites. As will be shown subsequently, after being retained to repeat grade 9 and/or 10, tens of thousands of students in Texas drop out of school.

5.3 Progress from Grade 6 to High School Graduation

          The apparent increase in grade 9 retention rates suggests a need to revisit the question of rates of progress toward high school graduation. In Section 5.1 above, we saw that the rate of progress of Black and Hispanic students from grade 9 to high school graduation fell to about 50% after full implementation of the TAAS as a requirement for high school graduation in 1992-93. But now, having seen in section 5.2 that the rate of retention in grade 9 appears to have increased markedly for Black and Hispanic students in Texas during the 1990s, it is useful to revisit the question of rates of progress toward high school graduation using base years other than grade 9 as a starting point from which to chart progress. This is because the grade 9 to high school graduation progress ratio may be lowered because of the increasing numbers of students "bunching up" in grade 9.
          A number of analyses have been conducted, examining the rates of progress from grades 6, 7, and 8 to high school graduation, six, five and four years later, respectively. For the sake of economy of presentation in an already overlong treatment, I present here only the results of the grade 6 to high school graduation six years later (this also allows us later to compare these results with data reported by TEA on grade 7-12 dropout rates). These are presented for cohorts labeled by their expected year of high school graduation. The cohort class of 1999, for example, would have been in grade 6 in 1992-93.
          Figures 5.5 and 5.6 show the progress of grade 6 White and minority (Black and Hispanic) grade 6 cohorts of students to grades 8, 10, 11, 12 and high school graduation. As can be seen, over the last 20 years, for both White and minority cohorts, close to 100% of grade 6 students appear to be progressing to grade 8 two years later. For White students in grade 6 cohorts of the classes of 1982-85, about 90% proceeded to grade 11 and 12 on time and about 80% graduated six years after they were in grade 6. For minority grade 6 cohorts the rates of progress were lower: for grade 6 cohorts of the classes of 1982-85 about 80% of Black and Hispanic students progressed on time to grades 11 and 12 and about 65% graduated.
          For classes of 1986 to 1990, there were slow but steady declines in all rates of progress for White students, from grade 6 to 8, from grade 6 to 10, etc. For minority cohorts of the classes of 1986 to 1990, there were initially sharper declines in rates of progress to grades 10, 11, and 12, but the cohorts of the 1989 and 1990 classes showed some rebounds in rates of progress to grades 10, 11 and 12 (and for the 1990 cohort to graduation). These patterns are associated with implementation of the first Texas high school graduation test, the TEAMS from 1985 to 1990.
          In 1991, the initial year of TAAS testing, the grade 6 to high school graduation ratios fell precipitously; from 1990 to 1991, the ratio fell from 0.75 to 0.68 for Whites and from 0.65 to 0.55 for minorities. From 1992 to 1996, this ratio held relatively steady, for Whites at about 0.75 and for minorities at about 0.60. Since 1996, there have been slight increases in the high school graduation to grade six ratios, for Whites to 0.78 in 1999 and for minorities to almost 0.65.
          Stepping back from specific numbers represented in Figures 5.5 and 5.6, three broad findings are apparent. First, the plight of Black and Hispanic students in Texas is not quite as bleak as it appeared when looking at grade 9 to high school graduation ratios, which showed only 50% since 1992 progressing from grade 9 to high school graduation. The bottom line in Figure 5.6 indicates that for most classes of the 1990s, 60-65% of Black and Hispanic students progressed from grade 6 to graduate on-time six years later (the grade 9 to graduation ratios are lower because of the increasing rates of retention in grade 9).


          Second, one of the major features of both Figures 5.5 and 5.6 is that in each, the bottom two lines (representing the grade 12 to grade 6, and graduation to grade 6 ratios) tend to converge over the last 20 years. This means that over this period, given that students make it to grade 12, they are increasingly likely to graduate. For White students for example, in the class of 1999, almost 80% progressed from grade 6 to grade 12, and 78% to graduation. In contrast, in the classes of the early 1980s, around 90% were making it from grade 6 to grade 12, but only about 80% were graduating. For minority classes of the early 1980s, about 80% were progressing on-time to grade 12, but only about 65% graduating. For minority classes of 1998 and 1999, 68-69% progressed to grade 12 and 64-65% to graduation on time. In other words, a major pattern revealed in these two figures is that since high school graduation testing was introduced in Texas in the mid-1980s, one major change appears to have been that larger proportions of students who reach grade 12 do graduate.
          The flip side of this pattern is that over this interval, smaller proportions of students, both White and minority are progressing as far as grade 12. For White classes of the early 1980s, about 90% of students in grade 6 progressed to grade 12 six years later, but by the 1990s the corresponding ratios had dropped to slightly below 80%. For minority classes of the early 1980s around 80% progressed from grade 6 to grade 12 six years later, but by the 1970s only 70% were progressing on time to grade 12.
          The most obvious reasons for these substantial declines in progress from grade 6 to grade 12 six years later are increased rates of retention in grades before 12 and increased rates of dropping out before grade 12. In the next section, we review data on rates of retention in grade in Texas, and in Section 5.5 explain an alternative strategy to estimate numbers of dropouts.

5.4 Cumulative Retention Rates

          In 1998, the TEA published the 1998 Comprehensive Biennial Report, containing statewide rates of retention in grade, reported by ethnicity. These data are of interest for several reasons. First, these data provide confirmation of what was apparent in the data shown in Figure 5.3, namely that the rate at which Black and Hispanic students are retained in grade 9 is 2.5 to 3.0 times that of the rate at which White students have to repeat grade 9.

Table 5.1
Texas Statewide Rates of Retention in Grade 1996-97, by Ethnicity

Grade White %
retained 		Afric.-Amer %
retained 		Hispanic %
retained 		Total %
K 2.30% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80%
1 4.40% 7.00% 6.60% 5.60%
2 1.60% 3.20% 3.40% 2.50%
3 0.90% 2.10% 2.10% 1.50%
4 0.70% 1.30% 1.40% 1.10%
5 0.60% 0.90% 1.00% 0.80%
6 1.00% 2.10% 2.30% 1.60%
7 1.60% 3.70% 3.80% 2.70%
8 1.30% 2.10% 2.90% 2.00%
9 9.60% 24.20% 25.90% 17.80%
10 4.80% 11.60% 11.40% 7.90%
11 3.20% 8.30% 7.90% 5.40%
12 2.50% 6.30% 7.20% 4.40%
Total 2.70% 5.70% 5.80% 4.20%
                              Source: TEA, 1998 Comprehensive Biennial Report, Table 4.2, p. 53.

          These data also allow us to see that despite much rhetoric lately about so-called "social promotion," retention in grade may be more common for Black and Hispanic students in Texas than is social promotion. Using an approach suggested by Robert Hauser, I analyzed data on patterns of retention in grade in Texas statewide as reported by the Texas Education Agency (and summarized in the table above). The approach suggested by Hauser is simply to subtract annual grade retention rates from 1.00 to yield rates of non-retention. The non-retention rates can then be multiplied across the grades to yield "compound" non-retention rates. The results for 1996-97 are shown in Table 5.2.

Table 5.2
Cumulative Rates of Grade Promotion, 1996-97

  White Black Hispanic
Grades 1-3 93.22% 88.13% 88.33%
Grades 4-6 97.72% 95.76% 95.37%
Grades 7-8 97.12% 94.28% 93.41%
Grades 9-12 81.22% 57.57% 56.11%
All twelve grades 71.86% 45.81% 44.15%

                              Source: Based on TEA, 1998 Comprehensive Biennial Report, Table 4.2, p. 53


          White students have a probability of progressing through 12 grades without being retained in grade of about 72%. However, for Black and Hispanic students the comparable rates are 46% and 44%. In short, even before the end of so-called social promotion, Black and Hispanic students in Texas appear more likely than not to be retained in grade over the course of a 12-year school career. Note also that the compound retention rate for Hispanics (56%) is about double that for White students (28%), even before taking into account that Hispanics are much more likely than White students to drop out of school before grade 12. Note also that even before the secondary level of education, Black and Hispanic students in Texas are more likely not to be promoted (that is, to be retained in grade) than White students. The data in Table 5.2 indicated that at both the early elementary (grades 1-3) and upper elementary (grades 4-6) Black and Hispanic students are 70-75% more likely than White students to be "flunked," and retained to repeat a grade in school.

5.5 Dropouts and the Illusion of Progress

          The retention rates shown in Table 5.1 may be used together with statewide enrollment data for 1995-96 and 1996-97 to calculate the grade levels at which students are dropping out of school in Texas. The logic of these calculations is as follows. If we assume no net migration of students into Texas, the number of students enrolled in say, grade 6 in 1996-97 ought to be equal to the sum of the number of students enrolled in grade 5 times the rate of non-retention in grade 5, plus the number enrolled in grade 6 times the grade 6 retention rate. Using this approach we may calculate the predicted grade enrollments in 1996-97 and compare them with the actual 1996-97 enrollments. Table 5.3 and Figure 5.7 show the results of such calculations for the Black, Hispanic, White and Total groups of students enrolled in Texas schools.

As can be seen, across all groups for grades 2 through 9 the enrollments for 1996-97 predicted on the basis of 1995-96 enrollments and reported rates of retention are quite close to the actual enrollments for 1996-97. For these grade levels the actual enrollments vary from those predicted by less than about 2%. For grade 1, actual enrollments in 1996-97 exceed those predicted by 5- 6%. The differences between actual and predicted grade 1 enrollments are fairly consistent across ethnic groups and presumably derive from the fact that across all groups kindergarten attendance was not universal in 1995-96 (hence the grade 1 enrollments in 1996-97 are larger than predicted from 1995-96 kindergarten enrollments).

Table 5.3
Grade Enrollments in Texas, 1996-97
Predicted and Actual Minus Predicted

 
Black
Hispanic
White
Total
Grade Predicted Actual
Minus
Pred'd 		% Diff. Pred. Act.
Minus
Pred'd 		% Diff. Pred. Act.
Minus
Pred'd 		% Diff. Pred. Act.
Minus
Pred'd 		% Diff.
1st 42,925 2,870 6.3% 117,564 6,390 5.2% 126,306 9,202 6.8% 286,858 18,399 6.4%
2nd 42,998 917 2.1% 112,510 2,330 2.0% 131,440 1,560 1.2% 287,020 4,735 1.7%
3rd 42,112 584 1.4% 109,434 2,081 1.9% 132,480 1,097 0.8% 284,020 3,768 1.3%
4th 42,016 499 1.2% 107,748 2,355 2.1% 133,683 814 0.6% 283,697 3,418 1.2%
5th 41,052 388 0.9% 105,989 2,015 1.9% 137,246 568 0.4% 284,170 3,088 1.1%
6th 41,390 369 0.9% 106,360 1,575 1.5% 141,235 -281 -0.2% 288,843 1,805 0.6%
7th 41,220 513 1.2% 105,656 2,237 2.1% 137,625 1,779 1.3% 284,566 4,464 1.6%
8th 40,208 19 0.1% 104,465 46 0.0% 138,044 189 0.1% 282,768 203 0.1%
9th 50,696 392 0.8% 131,492 1,225 0.9% 149,454 2,175 1.4% 330,422 5,012 1.5%
10th 42,418 -5,791 -15.8% 103,814 -14,969 -16.9% 141,855 -10,705 -8.2% 288,978 -32,356 -11.2%
11th 34,138 -3,504 -11.4% 79,894 -8,984 -12.7% 125,045 -7,767 -6.6% 239,395 -20,573 -8.6%
12th 27,732 -1,679 -6.4% 64,911 -5,375 -9.0% 111,361 -8,038 -7.8% 203,876 -14,964 -7.3%


          Note however that for grades 10, 11 and 12 much larger disparities are apparent and vary considerably by ethnic group. Overall, enrollments in grades 10, 11 and 12 in 1996-97 were more than 65,000 lower than predicted based on the previous year's enrollments. The missing students were predominantly Black and Hispanic. Grade 10 enrollments in 1996-97 were about 16% lower than expected for Black and Hispanic students, but only about 8% lower than expected for White students.
          What happened to these missing students? It seems extremely likely that they dropped out of school. This is not terribly surprising since previous research shows clearly that retention in grade is a common precursor to dropping out of school.
          The grade 9 retention rates in Texas are far in excess of national trends. A recent national study, for example, showed that among young adults aged 16-24, only 2.4 percent had been retained in grades 9-12 (NCES, Dropout rates in the United States 1995, Report No. dp95/97473- 5). The recent report of the National Research Council (NRC) also shows Texas to have among the highest grade 9 retention rates for 1992 to 1996 among the states for which such data are available (Heubert & Hauser, 1999, Table 6-1). (Note 14)
          A casual observer might well wonder what is wrong with retaining students in grade 9 if they are academically weak. The answer is explained in the recent report on high stakes testing from the National Research Council:
The negative consequences, as grade retention is currently practiced, are that retained students persist in low achievement levels and are more likely to drop out of school. Low performing students who have been retained in kindergarten or primary grades lose ground both academically and socially relative to similar students who have been promoted (Holmes, 1989; Shepard and Smith, 1989). In secondary school, grade retention leads to reduced achievement and much higher rates of school dropout. (Heubert & Hauser, 1999, p. 285).
          Even the TEA has acknowledged that "research has consistently shown that being overage for grade is one of the primary predictors of dropping out of school in later years.   . . . Being overage for grade is a better predictor of dropping out than underachievement." (TEA, 1996 Comprehensive Biennial Report on Texas Public Schools, pp. 35, 36.).
          Hence, it is fair to say that the soaring grade 10 TAAS pass rates are not just an illusion, but something of a fraud from an educational point of view. Table 5.4 presents data to support this view.

Table 5.4
Texas Grade 10 Enrollments 1996-97 and
Taking TAAS February 1997, by Ethnicity

 
Enrollments 1996-97
Taking TAAS Tests,
February 1997
Alternative Pass Rates
 
Predicted
Actual
No.
% passing all 3 tests
Based on Actual F96 Enrl.
Based on Pred't F96 Enrl.
Black 42,418 36,627 27,451 48.0% 36.0% 31.1%
Hispanic 103,814 88,845 69,421 52.0% 40.6% 34.8%
White 141,855 131,150 108,215 81.0% 66.8% 61.8%
Source: Enrollments and no. taking and passing TAAS: TEA, PEIMS Data 1996-1997 and www.tea.state.tx.us/student.assessment/results/summary/sum97/gxen97.htm (downloaded March 22, 2000). Predicted enrollments based on 1995-96 enrollments and rates of grade promotion and retention as explained in text.

          What these data show is that the dramatically improved pass rates on the 1997 grade 10 TAAS tests are in part a result of students who dropped out (or are otherwise missing) between grade 9 in 1996 and the TAAS testing in February 1997. The overall pass rates reported by TEA on the 1997 grade 10 TAAS tests, of 48%, 52% and 81% for Black, Hispanic and White students, respectively, drop to 36%, 40.6% and 66.8% if we base the pass rates on the Fall 1996 actual enrollments. And they drop even further, to 31.1%, 34.8% and 61.8% if we base the pass rates on the number of students predicted to have been in grade 10 in 1996-97 (based, as explained above on the 1995-96 grade 9 enrollments and the TEA reported rates of retention in 1996-97).
          This is, of course, also a reminder of an elementary fact of arithmetic. One can increase a proportion (such as percent passing) not just by increasing the numerator--but also by decreasing the denominator. In the next two sections, I estimate the proportions of the apparent gains in pass rates on the grade 10 TAAS tests between 1994 and 1998 that are attributable to decreases in the denominator (because of exclusion of students because either they dropped out of school or were classified as special education) and increases in the numerator (that is actual increases in numbers of students passing TAAS). Later, in Part 7, I return to the topic of dropouts in Texas, specifically to review and try to reconcile sources of evidence about high school completion in Texas.

5.6 Increase in Special Education Exclusions

          Before trying to distinguish the proportions of apparent TAAS gains that are real from those that are illusory, it is necessary to explain another manner in which students may be excluded from the grade 10 TAAS results used to rate secondary schools in Texas. It may be recalled that the soaring pass rates on the grade 10 TAAS summarized in Part 3 above were based on grade 10 students "not in special education." As far as I know, the TEA has not reported directly numbers of grade 10 students over time who were "in special education." However, TEA has reported the grade 10 pass rates separately for all students and for all students not in special education (at www.tea.state.tx.us/student.assessment/results/summary/). This allows us simply to subtract the two sets of data to derive the numbers and percentages of students who took the grade 10 TAAS who were classified as "in special education." Summary results are shown in Table 5.5. (Note 15)

Table 5.5
Number and % of Grade 10 TAAS Takers
in Special Education, 1994-1998

Numbers of Grade 10 TAAS Takers in Special Education
Year
All groups
Afric.-Amer.
Hispanic
White
1994 7602 833 1991 4685
1995 9049 1032 2351 5581
1996 11467 1500 3017 6810
1997 13005 1518 3707 7617
1998 14558 1818 4271 8284
Percentages of Grade 10 TAAS Takers in Special Education
Year
All groups
Afric.-Amer.
Hispanic
White
1994 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 4.5%
1995 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 5.2%
1996 5.3% 5.4% 4.5% 6.1%
1997 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 6.6%
1998 6.3% 6.3% 5.7% 7.1%

          As can be seen, the numbers and percentages of students taking the grade 10 TAAS, but classified as "in special education," have increased steadily between 1994 and 1998. This means that increasing numbers of students who have made it to grade 10 and taken the grade 10 TAAS have been excluded from school accountability ratings. Indeed between 1994 and 1998, the numbers of Black and Hispanic students taking the grade 10 TAAS counted as "in special education" more than doubled, though the percentage of White students counted as "in special education" remained higher (7.1% vs. 6.3% and 5.7% for Black and Hispanic tenth graders, respectively). This means that a portion of the increase in pass rates on the grade 10 TAAS is attributable simply to the increases in the rates at which students were counted as in special education and hence excluded from school accountability ratings and from summary statistics showing pass rates for students not in special education.

5.7 How Much Illusion from Exclusion?

          In Part 2 above, I reviewed evidence of the dramatic gains made in the passing rates on grade 10 TAAS between 1994 and 1998. As shown in Table 3.1, the percentage of students in Texas not in special education who passed all three grade 10 TAAS tests increased from 52% in 1994 to72% in 1998, a 20 point increase. In the preceding two sections (5.5 and 5.6), we have seen that portions of this gain are purely an illusion due to increases in the numbers of students dropping out of school before taking the grade 10 TAAS, or else taking the grade 10 TAAS but excluded from accountability results because they are counted as "in special education." Hence, it is useful now to try to estimate what portion of the increased pass rate on TAAS is purely an illusion produced by these two kinds of exclusion.
          In the previous section we saw that the percentage of students taking the grade 10 TAAS who were classified as "in special education" increased from 3.9% in 1994 to 6.3% in 1998. This suggests that around 2% of the 20-point gain in TAAS scores over this interval may be attributable simply to the increase in special education classifications. Note also that the increase in special education classifications has been larger for Black than for White students, so this may also account for a portion of the closing of the "race gap" in TAAS scores over this period. In contrast, the increase in Hispanic students classified as special education has been slightly less than the comparable increase for White students, so this factor could not account for the apparent shrinkage in the race gap in TAAS scores between Hispanic and White students.
          What about the possible effects of increases in dropout rates in inflating the apparent grade 10 pass rates? To answer this question we would need to have estimates of the dropout rates between the early 1990s and 1998. In Section 5.5 above, I presented estimates of dropouts for one year, namely 1996-97. Nonetheless, the grade 8 to 9 progression ratios discussed in Section 5.2 clearly suggest that dropout rates increased between the early and late 1990s. Specifically between the early and late 1990s, the grade 8 to 9 progression ratios for Black and Hispanic students increased from around 1.20 to nearly 1.30. This suggests that the rate at which Black and Hispanic students are being retained in grade, and having to repeat grade nine increased over this interval by around 50%. Since grade retention is a common precursor to dropping out, this certainly suggests an increased dropout rate. At the same time, the analyses of progress for grade 6 cohorts presented in Section 5.3 revealed that grade 6 to grade 11 progression ratios for Whites and minorities varied by not more than 5% during the 1990s (for Whites, the ratio was consistently between 85% and 89%; and for minorities between 75% and 80%). The reason for focusing here on progress to grade 11 is because the data on enrollments is from the fall whereas TAAS is taken in the spring. But if students progress to grade 11, they presumably have taken the exit level version of TAAS in spring of the tenth grade.
          What this suggests is that the majority of the apparent 20-point gain in grade 10 TAAS pass rates cannot be attributed to exclusion of the types just reviewed. Specifically, if rates of progress from grades 6 to grade 11 have varied by no more than 5% for cohorts of the classes of the 1990s, this suggests even if we take this as an upper bound, the extent to which increased retention and dropping out before fall grade 11, and add 2% for the increased rate of grade 10 special education classification, we still come up with less than half of the apparent 20-point gain in grade 10 TAAS pass rates between 1993 and 1998. So at this point in our analysis, it appears that while some of the gains may be due to these three forms of exclusion, a majority portion of the apparent gain is not. Hence it will be useful to turn in Part 7 to see whether the apparent gains on TAAS show up in any other evidence on the status and progress of education in Texas. Before turning to that topic, in Part 6 we review evidence from survey research about the effects of TAAS on education in Texas.

0: Home   |   1: Intro.   |   2: History   |   3: The Myth   |   4: TAAS   |   5: Missing Students
6: Teachers   |   7: Other Evidence   |   8: Summary   |   Notes & Ref.   |   Appendix