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Should teacher observation systems be used for making high-stakes decisions?

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.34.9841

Keywords:

teacher observation, high-stakes decisions, inference

Abstract

This study questions the suitability of teaching observation data for making high-stakes decisions that affect teachers. We define suitability (the extent to which intended purposes are advanced without causing undue harm) and argue that it fundamentally depends on the technical properties of the data produced by an observation system, which, in turn, depend on the attributes designed into the system. We conducted an experiment to understand better the relationship between the attributes of teaching observation systems and the suitability of their data. We compared three systems with different attributes, including rubrics that impose varying inference loads on raters. Experienced raters were randomly assigned to a system and properly trained. Then, they evaluated the instruction of advanced teacher candidates by viewing videos of their lessons. We considered three criteria when judging the resulting data: the power to predict a teacher’s contribution to student learning, the correlation of scores across systems, and rater agreement within systems. We found that a system with a low inference load (along with other attributes) outperformed systems with higher inference loads, but it may still be insufficient for making confident, high-stakes decisions. We maintain that few, if any, widely used observation systems are.

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Author Biographies

Michael Strong, Texas Tech University

Michael Strong is a research scientist in the College of Education at Texas Tech University. He is the former Director of Research at the New Teacher Center at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and at the Center on Deafness at the University of California, San Francisco. His current interest centers on the observation of teaching behavior and the performance of teacher pay-for-performance programs.

Jaehoon Lee, Texas Tech University

Jaehoon Lee, Ph.D., is an associate professor of educational psychology at Texas Tech University. His scholarly expertise spans advanced research methodologies, statistical modeling techniques, and measurement instruments applied across education, psychology, public health, and related disciplines. His recent work focuses on the evaluation and application of mixed-effects models, mixture models, Bayesian approaches, and propensity score methods for analyzing complex data sets.

John Gargani, Gargani + Co.

John Gargani is president of Gargani + Co., a company that helps organizations around the world achieve their social and environmental missions by measuring their impact, designing new programs, and improving performance. He is an evaluator, professor, speaker, and writer with nearly 30 years of experience directing evaluations of every type.

Minju Yi, Texas Tech University

Dr. Minju Yi is an assistant professor of practice in the Department of Teacher Education at Texas Tech University. Her research is informed by classroom teaching, professional practice, and policy work in mathematics teacher preparation and development. Her scholarship focuses on: (1) developing and evaluating interventions to strengthen preservice teachers’ mathematical content knowledge and pedagogical skills; (2) investigating how teachers’ mathematical understanding translates into instructional practice; (3) designing curriculum and instructional modules that integrate STEM disciplines to enhance both teacher development and student learning; and (4) examining the impact of teacher evaluation systems on teaching quality to inform equitable, evidence-based policy decisions.

Hyunjin Shim, Texas Tech University

Hyunjin Shim, Ph.D., is an associate researcher specializing in educational research on the development of knowledge and skills among preservice mathematics teachers. Her scholarly interests include curriculum and instruction, teacher preparation, and evidence-based approaches to mathematics education. She brings decades of experience as an elementary school teacher, which informs and strengthens her research.

Hyunchang Moon, Augusta University

Dr. Hyunchang (Henry) Moon is an assistant professor of pediatrics at the Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, and a senior editor for the Canadian Medical Education Journal. His scholarly work centers on learning design, educational research, and the integration of AI and emerging technologies, with a strong emphasis on evidence-based and learner-centered approaches. He contributes to the design and continuous improvement of medical curricula, supports the effective and ethical use of educational technologies, and collaborates with educators and researchers to advance teaching quality and learning outcomes.

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Published

2026-04-07

How to Cite

Strong, M., Lee, J., Gargani, J., Yi, M., Shim, H., & Moon, H. (2026). Should teacher observation systems be used for making high-stakes decisions?. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 34. https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.34.9841

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