Unpacking the black box of first-year college attainment: Evidence from a flagship regional university in Chile

Abstract

This study examines the factors influencing first-year college student success at a flagship regional university in Chile, focusing on academic progression and first-to-second year retention. Using administrative data and linear regression, we analyze the relationships between individual-level characteristics and students' likelihood of passing all courses and of persisting to the second year. Our findings reveal significant disparities across gender, high school background, admission type, and distance from campus. Notably, the factors associated with academic progression and retention are not always aligned, and early academic progression is particularly consequential. Surprisingly, students who delay entry after high school perform better academically and have higher retention rates. We also examine Chile's free college tuition policy, finding that while it is positively associated with retention, it is not significantly associated with academic progression. Our results underscore the importance of disaggregating first-year college outcomes and considering the unique challenges faced by different student subgroups to develop targeted interventions and support services.