Fundeb and demographic transition: Distributive effects and financial sustainability of municipal education systems in Caucaia and Eusébio, Ceará, Brazil

Abstract

This article analyzes the effects of the education financing model via Fundeb on federative equity in contrasting demographic contexts, based on a comparative study of the municipalities of Caucaia (with population decline) and Eusébio (with population growth) in the state of Ceará. The research operationalized four main indicators: the rate of growth/reduction in enrollments, the Fundeb/own-revenue ratio, cost per student-year, and institutional density of the school system. Data for the period from 2014 to 2024 reveal that Caucaia experienced a 2.2% reduction in enrollments and greater dependence on Fundeb (ratio of 3.44), while Eusébio recorded growth of 16.4% and lower dependence (ratio of 0.87). Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Rawls (1999), Sen (2009), and Merton (1968), the study shows that the current model—although it incorporates weighting factors and redistributive mechanisms introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT, and VAAR)—by maintaining the number of weighted enrollments as its central axis, tends to produce asymmetric effects in different demographic contexts. Municipalities experiencing growth benefit from relative economies of scale, whereas those undergoing decline face challenges to financial sustainability. The article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of implementing the Student Quality Cost (CAQ) and adopting redistributive mechanisms that take demographic, fiscal, and social variables into account, thereby ensuring financial sustainability and educational justice in contexts of inequality.