Could minimum grading enhance high school graduation rates and cost-effectiveness across Arkansas?

Abstract

High school graduation is a pivotal milestone that can shape students' future, offering them opportunities for higher education and gainful employment. Because research shows grade point averages and course failures to be predictive of high school graduation, it is important for students' life outcomes that their teachers assign them equitable grades. However, recent research has scrutinized how schools have traditionally graded students, calling for new approaches such as minimum grading. In this analysis, we simulate the economic impacts of implementing a minimum grading policy statewide during the ninth-grade year of the cohort of students who were in ninth grade in 2015-16 in Arkansas. On average, in Arkansas public schools, we estimate that minimum grading would affect about one (narrow bound) to 3% (broad bound) of students, increase cost-effectiveness by 6% (narrow bound) to 23% (broad bound), largely varying across districts, and have essentially no impact on the return on investment. The application of minimum grading shifted 1% of failing course grades to passing, thereby positioning 10% of previously failing students to pass. These findings suggest that minimum grading could serve as a cost-effective strategy to enhance graduation rates in districts with higher rates of affected students, without necessitating additional educational spending.