Montana Early Warning System for dropout prevention: Data use, mediating factors and impact

Abstract

Early warning systems (EWSs)—predictive analytics used in dropout prevention—are now widespread and embedded in many student information systems and statewide longitudinal data systems. Few research studies focus on the processes and policies involved in using these kinds of data and how use may relate to graduation rates. In this mixed methods study of the Montana EWS (2012–2020), we assess the role of mediating factors associated with schools’ adoption and use of the EWS for dropout prevention. We find that schools used the EWS more intensively based on school officials’ vision, their perceived value of the EWS, broader dissemination of the EWS data, and when they placed more emphasis on relationship-building and professional development. We then examine trends in graduation rates in EWS-adopting schools. The results indicate that students in schools that used the EWS more intensively experienced improvements in graduation outcomes relative to students in non-adopting schools or in the same schools who did not receive an EWS analysis.